The leadership changes in the presidency of Venezuela mark a turning point for a country that has been in political crisis since the rise of Chavismo in 1999. Although the details of the military operation that led to Nicolás Maduro’s removal continue to raise questions, the discussion has shifted toward future possibilities. Maduro is gone, but the country remains, and with it, the chance to write a new chapter.
What paths may lie ahead?
The current landscape appears divided into two broad routes. On one hand, there is the possibility that the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez will pursue a gradual transition, seeking to rebuild political and international relationships while steering the country toward a more inclusive and sustainable environment. On the other hand, there is the possibility that Chavismo may attempt to maintain the current structure, limit negotiations, and preserve the autocratic status quo.
It’s still too early to determine which direction will prevail, as the information gathered since Maduro’s departure has been mixed – marked by periods of conciliatory language alternated with the occasional nationalist rhetoric. Yet, at a minimum, the facts indicate that Miraflores is responding to signals from the White House and the country has entered a transitional phase.
What signals are raising hope?
More than words, actions are what truly matter. The market is seeing the United States easing sanctions with the goal of boosting the oil industry, as well as the legislative progress on amnesty measures (under exceptional circumstances). Furthermore, indications of the potential reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Venezuela and the United States outline another important step.
Either way, we must watch for concrete signs: the full reopening of the US embassy, the resumption of international flights, increased freedom of expression and criticism, and more open political dialogue without reprisals. If these elements begin to take shape, they could trigger a domino effect, accelerating the country’s shift toward stronger institutions and a more democratic environment. We also find encouraging public statements from US officials, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, reiterating the goal of supporting a transition to a “democratically elected government.”
There is also the constitutional maze
Venezuela’s 1999 Constitution offers several avenues for presidential succession, depending on how the ongoing leadership change is formally interpreted. For now, the Supreme Court has opted for the classification of “temporary absence” of Nicolas Maduro, which allows Delcy Rodríguez to exercise executive power for up to 90 days, renewable once. If the National Assembly declares an “absolute absence” of Maduro, then it must call for elections within 30 days.
However, experience shows that constitutional interpretation in Venezuela tends to be flexible. It is possible that the process will lead to a negotiated solution in which Chavismo cedes the Executive branch through a new presidential election but retains influence in the Legislative branch or the Armed Forces.
Lessons from other transitions
The history of democratic transitions in Ibero-America shows that profound institutional change takes time. Spain needed almost three years to consolidate its democracy after Franco’s death. In Chile, the 1988 plebiscite opened the door to elections a year later. Argentina needed more than a year after the weakening of the military junta, and Uruguay followed a long path from the 1980 plebiscite to the 1984 elections. Thus, we cannot expect that Venezuela, after nearly three decades of Chavismo, will be transformed overnight.
"...must watch for concrete signs: the full reopening of the US embassy, the resumption of international flights, increased freedom of expression and criticism, and more open political dialogue without reprisals. If these elements begin to take shape, they could trigger a domino effect, accelerating the country’s shift toward stronger institutions and a more democratic environment"
The light at the end of the tunnel
Even so, the very fact that the possibility of real change is part of the public conversation is a source of hope for many Venezuelans. And hope itself has enormous value. It is no coincidence that negative perceptions about the future have been one of the main reasons why more than eight million Venezuelans, about 25% of the population, left their home country. Believing that something better can happen is always the first step toward a meaningful transformation.
Today, the possibility of real change is being taken seriously again, and that alone has caught the market’s attention. A country that just a few years ago was sadly regarded as a lost cause is now reemerging in conversations and on the global radar. We are clear-eyed: the near future will likely be complex and turbulent. Yet, after many dark years, finally the light at the end of the tunnel is beginning to appear.
Alberto Rojas
Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
ubs.com
